Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse believes the long-awaited Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act is now more likely than not to become law, estimating an 80% chance it gets signed by the end of April 2026. His call comes as U.S. lawmakers, banks, and crypto firms race to finalize a comprehensive market structure bill that would finally spell out who regulates what in crypto and under what rules. XRP and broader majors ticked higher after the comments, reflecting growing optimism that the industry is inching toward a stable regulatory baseline.
Key Takeaways:
- Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse puts the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law by April 2026 at roughly 80%, citing renewed momentum in Washington.
- The bill would define whether digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC oversight, creating a consistent market structure for tokens and trading venues.
- Regulatory clarity is seen as a key unlock for institutional adoption across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and the broader crypto market, similar to the effect of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- XRP reacted positively to Garlinghouse’s remarks, with traders betting that clearer rules and potential commodity status could benefit Ripple’s ecosystem.
A Potential Turning Point for U.S. Crypto Rules
For over a decade, U.S. crypto markets have operated in a gray zone, with enforcement actions often substituting for clear rulemaking. The CLARITY Act aims to change that by providing a formal framework for how digital assets are classified and which agency—the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) takes the lead.
According to multiple reports, Garlinghouse recently said there is an “80% chance” President Donald Trump signs the CLARITY Act into law by the end of April 2026, calling clarity “better than chaos” and urging the industry not to “let perfection get in the way of progress.” His comments were highlighted by outlets including CoinDesk, Benzinga, and KuCoin, and amplified across X by crypto media accounts.
Data from prediction platform Polymarket underscores that optimism: one market tracking whether the CLARITY bill will be signed in 2026 has traded around the low‑60% probability range, while shorter-dated markets have risen as negotiations advanced.
What the CLARITY Act Actually Does
In plain terms, the CLARITY Act is a crypto market structure bill. It is designed to:
- Classify digital assets as either securities or commodities, with criteria for when a token can “graduate” from an investment contract to a decentralized digital commodity.
- Divide regulatory authority between the SEC (for securities-like offerings and investment contracts) and the CFTC (for spot and derivatives markets in digital commodities).
- Set rules for exchanges and intermediaries, including registration, customer asset segregation, and disclosure obligations.
- Protect self-custody and DeFi innovation by carving out routine protocol and validation activities from being treated as broker or exchange functions, while preserving anti‑fraud powers.
The House version, H.R. 3633, passed its chamber in 2025, but has stalled at times in the Senate Banking Committee amid disagreements over stablecoin yield products and the competitive balance between banks and non-bank crypto firms. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly warned that if Democrats retake the House in November 2026, support for the current package could fade, adding urgency to negotiations.
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Why This Matters for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Institutions
Institutional demand for crypto has already accelerated after the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted tens of billions of dollars in flows and helped anchor Bitcoin as an accepted asset class among wealth managers and corporates. But many traditional players still hesitate to scale beyond Bitcoin and, to a lesser degree, Ethereum because classification risk remains unresolved.
By clearly defining when a token is a security, when it’s a commodity, and how exchanges must operate, the CLARITY Act could:
- Lower legal and compliance risks for banks, broker-dealers, and asset managers that want to expand crypto offerings.
- Increase liquidity and depth across spot and derivatives markets for a broader set of assets, including XRP, SOL, and HBAR.
- Enable new product structures beyond ETFs, such as token baskets, on-chain funds, and regulated yield products, within a defined regulatory perimeter.
Garlinghouse’s 80% estimate is one of the strongest public signals so far from a major industry CEO that the bill is not just symbolic, but within striking distance of passage.
Ripple and XRP: Positioned to Gain, With a Structural Catch
Ripple has more at stake than most. The company’s multi‑year legal battle with the SEC over whether XRP is a security became a defining case in U.S. crypto regulation. In 2023, a federal judge ruled that XRP’s programmatic sales on exchanges did not constitute securities offerings, but left some institutional sales under scrutiny. That partial clarity was important, yet incomplete.
The CLARITY Act introduces a more formal path for assets like XRP to be treated as commodities if they meet decentralization tests. One of the most closely watched provisions is a 20% supply concentration threshold, which effectively says: no single entity should control 20% or more of a blockchain’s native asset for the network to be considered “mature” and its token eligible for commodity status.
HTX research and community analyses note that Ripple currently controls around 40% of total XRP supply via escrow, making the 20% threshold a critical structural hurdle. To align with the proposed rules, Ripple would likely need to reduce its effective control by nearly half, through a combination of escrow management and long‑term release or burn strategies that do not destabilize the market.
XRP and CLARITY: Key Data Points
HTX notes that the Act does not force Ripple to dump its holdings or transfer them to a third party; instead, it requires the company to demonstrate that no single issuer can dominate XRP’s supply or dictate network outcomes. How Ripple chooses to do that—via revised escrow mechanics, burns, or other strategic actions will be a key focus for both regulators and investors.
What Garlinghouse Actually Said and Why It Resonates
Garlinghouse’s 80% figure has been reported by several outlets and mirrored in regional KuCoin and MEXC updates summarizing his remarks. Benzinga quoted him emphasizing that the industry must accept an imperfect bill over continued uncertainty:
“The Clarity Act, as written, is not perfect. There’s things I don’t love about it. But let’s not let perfection get in the way of progress.”
Another summary of his comments notes that he argued progress now “would serve the market better than prolonged uncertainty,” even as policymakers keep debating some details.
In parallel, XRP‑focused commentary has underscored that, while XRP already has more legal clarity than many altcoins, a full market structure law would remove residual doubt for institutions that must answer to regulators, boards, and auditors before they scale exposure.
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The Road Ahead: Bipartisan Path, Narrow Window
The CLARITY Act enjoys notable bipartisan interest, particularly as the U.S. tries to keep pace with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto‑Assets (MiCA) regime and evolving frameworks across Asia-Pacific. However, substantive disagreements remain around:
- How yield‑bearing stablecoin products should be treated relative to bank deposits.
- The balance of power between banking regulators, the SEC, and the CFTC.
- Timelines and transition periods for existing platforms and tokens.
Reports suggest key banking and crypto stakeholders face an informal late‑February target to resolve the thorniest issues, after which the risk of delay or dilution rises. Bessent’s warning about a possible future House flip adds political pressure to move quickly.
Put simply, Garlinghouse’s 80% odds reflect a moment where political will, market maturity, and industry lobbying are unusually aligned—but not guaranteed. The next few months will decide whether CLARITY becomes the foundation for the next decade of U.S. crypto growth, or another near‑miss that keeps investors living in a gray area.
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Potaraju Ramesh
Potaraju Ramesh is the Founder and Lead Market Analyst at CoinSpectra.in, an independent digital publication focusing on cryptocurrency and Web3. Since 2017, he has been analyzing market cycles, on-chain data, and Indian regulatory frameworks. His editorial approach is built on transparency and data-driven neutrality, providing readers with the context needed to understand complex digital asset shifts.